Arvind Kejriwal to resign as Delhi Chief Minister: What are the likely scenarios?

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Sunday announced he would resign from his post in two days in a stunning move, two days after he got bail from the Supreme Court in the liquor policy case.
Arvind Kejriwal’s decision to resign is seen as a strategic move, and he aims to position the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in a fresh light ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections. By deciding to step down, he could seek to paint himself as a martyr and fight against a corrupt system.
His narrative that he will only return as the Chief Minister with a fresh mandate adds weight to his announcement. The move could galvanise public support and translate into votes for AAP, particularly if the elections are held alongside those in Maharashtra and Jharkhand in November.
However, the transition may not be as smooth as it appears. Internal dynamics within the AAP could create turbulence. Finding a suitable interim chief minister who commands the respect and loyalty of party members, while also appealing to voters, could be challenging.
Moreover, Opposition parties — the Congress and the BJP — may see the scenario as an opportunity to exploit the perceived instability within AAP.
Additionally, Arvind Kejriwal’s decision to resign after his release on bail, rather than during his imprisonment in the liquor policy case, has raised eyebrows. Critics may argue that it is a tactical retreat rather than a principled stand, which could potentially erode public trust.
Many political analysts argue that Arvind Kejriwal’s resignation announcement was not merely a political gambit to garner sympathy and secure a fresh mandate after getting bail in the liquor policy case.
The Supreme Court ruling, which barred the AAP national convenor from attending office or signing official files, created a significant administrative bottleneck, making governance virtually impossible for Arvind Kejriwal. Continuing under such conditions could have severely hampered his party’s ability to implement key policies and ultimately hurt their electoral prospects.
Another critical factor was the looming threat of President’s Rule. The central government, led by the BJP, could have cited policy paralysis to justify imposing President’s Rule, which could delay elections by up to six months.
Such a postponement would erode the emotional momentum Arvind Kejriwal had gained after walking out of jail, making it more challenging to leverage public sympathy during the elections.
Speculation is rife on who could succeed Arvind Kejriwal as the Chief Minister. Given Arvind Kejriwal’s dominant influence within AAP, it is almost certain that his choice for a successor will be handpicked, and subsequently approved by party MLAs.
The choice of a successor is crucial and will primarily serve as a stop-gap measure for the party until the next Assembly polls are held.
Despite AAP’s interest in an early election, capitalising on the sympathy generated by Kejriwal’s release from jail after bail and his subsequent resignation, the final decision hinges on the party.
Arvind Kejriwal’s successor could either come from the current Cabinet or be strategically selected to leverage caste dynamics, with an eye on both Haryana and Delhi Assembly elections.
As Arvind Kejriwal prepares to resign in two days, Delhi’s political landscape faces a crucial change. However, this shift is a change of guards at the top, rather than a dissolution of the Delhi Assembly.
With a massive majority of 61 MLAs in the 70-member Assembly, this situation remains largely an internal issue for AAP. Upon his resignation, Arvind Kejriwal is expected to present his successor’s name to the Lieutenant Governor.
As Delhi is a National Capital Territory, the Lt Governor will forward the Delhi Chief Minister’s recommendation to the President through the Ministry of Home Affairs. Once the approval is received from the President, the new chief minister can take office.
Currently, there is no proposal to dissolve the Delhi Assembly, which could reduce the possibility of President’s rule being imposed. The Lt Governor has the power to dissolve the Assembly on the advice of the chief minister.
Likewise, early elections seem improbable. Given that Maharashtra and Jharkhand are set to go to polls in November, it would be challenging for the Election Commission to prepare for early polls in Delhi within the same timeframe.