Dropped like a hot potato

The Sept 22 local election re-match in Pathum Thani showcased a defeat caused by a lack of support from a major party, according to observers.
However, on a deeper level, why the party withdrew its support in the first place was the real question.
The race for the chairmanship of the Pathum Thani Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) was full of twists and turns, proof that there is no such thing as a sure bet in politics at any level.
The saga unfolded when Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit Toopkrajang stepped down as PAO chief early this year to force an election at a time he thought he had the best chance of securing a second term.
However, his campaign was not destined to be smooth sailing. What stood between him and re-election was a towering figure called Thaksin Shinawatra, a former premier profoundly respected by the ruling Pheu Thai Party.
Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit, a former city police commissioner, was at one point a close aide of Thaksin, who formerly served in the police force before quitting to pursue his interest in a telecom company which flourished into a business empire.
With immense means and considerable connections, he ventured into politics and made his mark as leader of the Palang Dharma Party. He later left the party to found Thai Rak Thai, which was subsequently dissolved over electoral fraud. The party then reincarnated into the People’s Power Party, which was disbanded, also as a result of electoral fraud. From this demise, Pheu Thai was born.
Thaksin left Thailand to attend the Beijing Olympics in 2008, shortly before he was convicted by the Supreme Court of helping his then wife, Khunying Potjaman, purchase prime land on Ratchadaphisek Road in Bangkok at a discount while he was prime minister.
A source said during Thaksin’s years in self-imposed exile, his close ties with Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit became strained. It is believed the fallout was triggered by an alleged remark Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit made to people in his circle that Thaksin may have to spend the rest of his life in exile, suggesting the former premier’s political career was well and truly over.
So Thaksin’s return to the country in August last year must have taken Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit aback. Nonetheless, Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit was reported to have been among those who appeared to greet Thaksin, only to have been met with a rather frosty reaction from the former premier, according to the source.
The estrangement looked to have degenerated into all-out enmity when Thaksin enlisted the help of several powerful political scions in Pathum Thani to back Pheu Thai’s Charn Phuangphet’s bid for the PAO chairmanship in the province.
Thaksin reportedly declared he was never close to Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit, despite the latter having been known to produce a framed photo of Thaksin personally attaching an insignia to his uniform at an event to mark a promotion.
Certain their broken relationship would never heal, Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit admitted his chances of reelection as head of Pathum Thani’s PAO office were slim and would be an uphill battle.
Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit, who registered his candidacy under the Khon Rak Pathum (Love Pathum) group, also expected the June 30 PAO election between him and Mr Charn would be tight.
This proved prophetic as Mr Charn proceeded to win the poll by only 2,000 votes.
But the victory was short-lived. The Election Commission (EC) ordered a re-run after receiving a complaint that Mr Charn had thrown a party and organised entertainment for voters during the campaign, in violation of EC law.
In the re-run, though, the Pheu Thai logo was missing from Mr Charn’s rally stages. It was apparent the ruling party’s support for him in the Sept 22 election would not be forthcoming.
Mr Charn was counting solely on his supporters to win. But when the backing of Pheu Thai-affiliated families disappeared, the chances of victory were not stacked in his favour.
However, he insisted that it was he who was keeping his distance from Pheu Thai although he remained loyal to the party.
The unofficial poll results confirmed that Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit bagged 187,975 votes, edging out Mr Charn, who received 120,007. Voter turnout was low, reportedly below 40%.
After conceding defeat, Mr Charn said he gave Pheu Thai a wide berth because he did not want the re-run campaign to affect the party.
His defeat is attributed mainly to an order by provincial authorities to suspend him not long after the original June 30 election.
Mr Charn was slapped with a suspension because he was in the middle of a malfeasance trial over the questionable distribution of relief aid while he was PAO chairman more than a decade ago.
The source said it was less than clear whether Pheu Thai had ditched Mr Charn or the other way around.
However, the source insisted Pheu Thai had every reason to worry about backing Mr Charn in the re-run.
With the Constitutional Court removing Srettha Thavisin as premier over his appointment of ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a cabinet minister, Pheu Thai has experienced the full and swift enforcement of the ethics law invoked to keep political postholders’ conduct in check.
The ruling party might, after weighing up the risks, have decided against endorsing Mr Charn in the re-run. An endorsement would have exposed the party to a complaint accusing it of breaching the ethics law by backing a candidate in danger of being convicted of a crime.
The party could have found its own future at risk if it had kept Mr Charn on its ticket.
Thailand’s key influencers
Given their long political history, a recent meeting between former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and Bhumjaithai Party co-founder Newin Chidchob has undoubtedly drawn public interest and fuelled speculation.
Although both claim to have retired from politics, their influence within their respective parties remains strong. Thaksin is regarded as Pheu Thai’s big boss, while Mr Newin is thought to play a similar role in Bhumjaithai and is often referred to as khru yai (principal).
The meeting, which took place on Oct 6 at Thaksin’s Chan Songla residence on Charan Sanitwong Road in Bangkok, coincided with talks about a possible power-sharing deal between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai.
The theory is that both parties may have struck an agreement in which Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul would eventually step in as prime minister to succeed Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter.
Mr Anutin — who initially denied the meeting took place but later confirmed it by saying he invited Mr Newin for dinner with Thaksin — denied that the conversation involved political bargaining. The Bhumjaithai leader also refused to give any details about the meeting except that Mr Newin received a jacket as a birthday gift from the ex-premier.
However, whether such a deal exists or not, most political pundits believe that the days of the Buri Ram strongman taking orders from Thaksin are long gone.
Their relationship has changed considerably since Mr Newin, an astute power broker, led a faction of MPs to break away from the People’s Power Party, a successor of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party founded by Thaksin, according to observers.
At that time the Buri Ram politician switched allegiance and was instrumental in the rise of the Democrat Party that saw Abhisit Vejjajiva, the Democrat leader, elected as prime minister in 2009.
Mr Newin decided to forgo politics in favour of the world of sport years ago, but as Bhumjaithai co-founder, he is believed to have played a significant role in the party and its steady rise. When he speaks, everyone in Bhumjaithai listens.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, is certain Mr Newin will no longer play second fiddle to Thaksin nor carry out the latter’s agenda. Their relationship is one of equals.
In his opinion, Mr Newin’s clout has grown, especially since the Senate election. The 200-member Senate is believed to be dominated by the blue faction — a term referring to affiliations with Bhumjaithai, with up to 160 senators thought to be allied to the blue camp.
The Senate, while having no power to elect a prime minister, is believed to serve as Mr Newin’s leverage with regard to its role in charter amendments and endorsing members of public independent agencies. For any charter amendment to pass, one-third of the Senate’s support is required.
According to Mr Thanaporn, it is a waste of time for the ruling Pheu Thai Party to use resources to undermine the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) which is apparently targeting Pheu Thai and Ms Paetongtarn after being ousted from the government.
The latest petition filed by political activist Ruangkrai Leekitwattana questions Ms Paetongtarn’s ethics following her appointment of Surapong Suebwonglee and Nattawut Saikuar as advisers, despite them having served jail sentences.
Surapong, a former finance minister, and Nattawut, a former director of the Pheu Thai family, were previously sentenced by the Supreme Court. The premier appointed them as her advisers on Sept 16 and Oct 4.
However, Mr Thanaporn does not believe these complaints can do serious harm to the prime minister and Pheu Thai had better focus on the main opposition People’s Party, which won last year’s general election, and keep a close eye on Bhumjaithai.
Bhumjaithai is a coalition partner and works in the government led by Ms Paetongtarn, but it is still a political rival during elections. Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai are certain to fiercely compete for House seats, said the political analyst.
Pheu Thai must ensure that the Bhumjaithai Party does not become a thorn in its side as Bhumjaithai’s influence is growing in both the House and the Senate, he noted.
Mr Thanaporn pointed out that targeting Bhumjaithai, which oversees the Interior Ministry, is not difficult at all because the ministry is responsible for administrative operations across the country. If the ruling party can expose flaws in Bhumjaithai, it could weaken both Bhumjaithai and Mr Newin.
Infighting among coalition parties is a common practice in politics, especially when multiple parties are involved and previous administrations led by Gen Prem Tinasulanonda, Chatichai Choonhavan and Chuan Leekpai all experienced bitter infighting, he insisted.